The Optimal Locations for Solar Power Investment in Arizona

Solar installation sites must be chosen carefully in order to maximize return on investment for green energy projects. Given a database containing 27 potential sites in Arizona, we present a method for ranking them in order of their optimality. Three models of optimality, or score, are evaluated, where each is a function of solar panel efficiency, availability of solar resource and confidence in data for each site. Low uncertainty was obtained when comparing two of the models, which agreed on similar final rankings. 1. Introduction As interest in green alternatives to fossil fuel intensifies, many organizations have turned to solar radiation to meet their energy needs. However, the decision to build an installation for harvesting solar power is a potentially costly one. Although solar power is available anywhere, not all locations are made equal. The abundance of sunlight and effects temperature and humidity may have on photovoltaic cells make deciding the best place to put a solar panel tricky. Furthermore, the unpredictability of weather ensures that just because a site looks optimal today, it may not always be so. If the wrong decision is made, the consequences can be dire. Facilities that are unable to produce the projected amount of energy early in their lifespans run the risk of putting companies in debt to their financiers. As such, potential investors are conservative with their funding. Locations for solar panel placement are usually evaluated by the smallest possible solar energy return one can reasonably expect. This figure, referred to as a P90 value, is the amount of a given resource that will be exceeded 90% of the time. P90 values are an important tool 1 Vignola, F. et. al. 2 Dobos, A. et. al.